Friday, February 11, 2011

And So Much for Mubarak

AJE says that he's done. He just resigned.

Next step: Suleiman.

Edit: It happened without violence, too. That was almost certainly key: the military clearly couldn't be coaxed into attacking non-violent protesters. (I'd heard rumors that the order had actually come down, but the soldiers on the ground flatly refused. If true, it's amazing, and those men are heroes.) Mubarak was left powerless; the security forces just didn't have the power to enforce his rule, the army was unwilling, and the chaos strategy that I'd been so concerned about just didn't do the job either. I'd said that the only way the Chaos Strategy could work is if it managed to stop the Egyptian protesters from gathering momentum. It didn't. The thugs were repelled, and really wouldn't have worked again. Once the Wael Ghonim interview came out, it was all over.

That said, I'm very, very concerned about the army taking over, and about the comments being made questioning whether Egyptian democracy will be recognized as legitimate if the Muslim Brotherhood plays a role in the government. (As it almost certainly will.)

This is NOT over. Not by a long shot.

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